Little and Large – Andy Carroll, Luis Suarez and the 4-2-3-1 conundrum

By Rob Gutmann

Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/RobGutmann
Website: http://www.theanfieldwrap.com/author/robgutmann/

I FINALLY got the hang of the Guardian tactical chalkboard thing this week. A gift from The Anfield Wrap’s very own Neil Atkinson.  It feels like a game changer. I need never leave the homestead again. This Chalkboard is now the font of all (my) knowledge. One need only conjure an ill thought-out theory, twiddle with a few variables on the chalkboard template, and before one can say ‘Jordan Henderson completes more passes and makes more interceptions than the naked eye alone reveals’, it does its myriad calculations and vindicates any old footballing cod science. Holy fuck.

Armed and dangerous, I set forth on a half-baked theory testing quest. Lately I’ve had this feeling on me that the Dalglish/Clarke tactical axis have begun to see the tandem of Liverpool forwards Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez in a whole new light. The received wisdom was that one best uses Carroll as a battering ram of a number nine – the big man up top, more literally than metaphorically ‘on the shoulder’ of the last defender, ready and able to fling himself at the succession of crosses to order that Comolli spent over £50m acquiring this summer.

Likewise, Luis Suarez, the man bought to be the artistic foil to Carroll’s blunter intent, was initially visualised as more of a David Silva like playmaker, dropping off the vanguard of the attack, picking up the opportunities between the lines or making use of space on the flanks. Many a 4-2-3-1 was posited, in pre-season conjectures, with Suarez almost always a selection in the second attacking tier’s bank of three.

What no man reckoned on was what we tentatively saw signs of amidst the wreckage at White Hart Lane and most definitely bore witness to at home to Wolves and also again in last weekend’s derby victory. Rather than assuming the role as the ‘reference point’ of the attack, as its most advanced proponent, Carroll was instead cast in something of a supporting role to the man many thought would in fact supply his meat and drink, Luis Suarez.

Be they huddled in snugs of pubs, around microphones podcasting, posting on forums, or writing for mighty media organs, football people everywhere have all been discussing Liverpool FC’s recruitment drive over the summer almost entirely within the context of answering one pivotal question: ‘So, who’s getting wide to knock those crosses in for big Andy Carroll to head in?’.

From a time before chalkboards

 

It’s been so oft repeated as a genuine criteria for LFC’s next phase of development that little time or column inches have been expended questioning the core assumptions within that enquiry. Firstly, there’s a presupposition that big Andy is the first name in Kenny Dalglish’s head when he wakes in the morning with his first 11 notebook and pencil at the bedside. Clearly that’s not the case.

Then there’s the simplifying of Kenny and co’s tactical masterplan to ‘Get it wide. Cross it. Big lump heads it in. 3 points. Go home.’ There is the further implied insult not only to Andy Carroll’s range of attributes as a footballer, but also to Luis Suarez, viewed not as the goal machine that his CV indicates he actually is, but merely as the artful assisting servant to the designated target man.

Amidst the debris and recriminations emanating from all of the red persuasion after the massacre at the Lane two weeks ago, was the odd ‘..and what the fuck was Dalglish doing playing Andy Carroll on the wings for?’. The same criticism was not echoed a week later in victory over Wolves, though Carroll was again to be seen making occasional (and this time effective) forays into wide positions.

Carroll was not suddenly becoming a winger, though, as his role appeared a much more diverse one than hitherto visualised by the majority. The mainstay of his new game seemed to be one of dropping off the front  into those sacred areas ‘between the lines’ normally only reserved for the physically diminutive and fleet of mind and foot.

Not that we are witnessing his reinvention as a Geordie Jari Litmanen exactly, because his overall performance was more reminiscent in range and dimension of Emile Heskey’s stylings during his one proper season at Liverpool (2000/2001 season). For one year only Emile was an unplayable composite machine of a forward. He’d hold up the play with that Velcro chest of his, he’d flick it on with his head, he’d attack crosses, he’d run the channels and get vicious shots away, or he’d use his pace and strength out wide to get behind defences and supply others – such a tragedy for Houllier’s LFC that some mental obstruction appeared to prevent Heskey from ever reprising that one great season.

Carroll’s more aquiline impression of Heskey was not the only retro feature of Liverpool’s attacking play in the Wolves match. Suarez in his very own slippery style very much aped the movement and intent of (whisper it) Michael Owen in his 1999-2003 pomp. If Carroll was the forward dropping deep, primed for the flick on, then Suarez was assuming the Ian Rush/Michael Owen position on the toes of the last defender, ready to utilise pace and guile to escape into those prized positions where the offside trap has failed and that last tango between striker and goal keeper is danced.

Watching the YouTube show reels of Carroll at Newcastle there is plenty of evidence of him profiting from a deeper role. The boy can whip a cross in for sure (we saw a peach against Wolves), and his aerial prowess lends itself to the flicking-on of the ball and the knocking over of his marker. By working more outside the box he is also ideally placed to be coming onto the sort of balls that he can despatch with venom back in the direction of the goal with interest, as witnessed in the Anfield demolition of Man City last season with that mighty bludgeon of a 20 yarder to open the scoring.

For Suarez the Owen role is heaven sent. He has the freedom to run where he likes, improvise all over the shop, and use his pace where it’s most effective. Suarez is clearly a different player to Owen but there are echoes of the fallen hero’s golden age in Luis’ magnetic attraction to the goal and unquenchable thirst for getting in behind defences.

The 4-2-3-1 formation (or 4-5-1 in old money) is the current strategy du jour sported by fashion conscious coaches the world over. TV tactics board pundits and football video gamers covert it even more. 4231 looks particularly lovely laid out on a marked up green board because it gives the impression that your team is setting up with 4 attackers, which feels slick, expansive and sexy.

The truth is 4231 is not inherently a statement of free flowing attacking intent. It is a hark back to a more Italianate tactical age where defence, simplisitically speaking, was always revered as the best form of attack. 4231 is not much more, nor less, than what used to be routinely spoken of as a 451, which in turn was a more cautious take on a 442.

The difference between 442 and 451? In the 451 (or 4231) the second striker often isn’t (a striker that is). He’s what we’re now calling a Tresquartista, or attacking midfielder, in common parlance. To be fair to modern innovation, there is a nuance with 4231 that differs from 451. The older system sought primarily to pack the midfield and even-out any overly testing contest. The 4231 also starts from this conservative premise, but by (theoretically) committing more attack minded players to the midfield flank positions it tells itself (or its tactical proponents at any rate) that it is ideally geared towards switching congested midfield defense into all out 4 pronged attack. In reality, the older fashioned 451 set ups had this in mind too, but just didn’t boast about it quite so much.

In looking to modern Liverpool and an intended 4231, most experts were tending to see LFC setting up with Carroll as the ‘1’, supported from deeper positions by Suarez and 2 wide men. The problem with this is that in 451’s (sorry, 4231’s) most coaches expect that when the ball is lost that the ‘attacking 3’ behind the main striker drop back to add numbers into a 5 man midfield.

Fine in theory, but that blunts the goal threat of a player like Luis Suarez if cast in the midfield/attack supporting role (behind the single striker). The system is asking him to do too much in areas of the pitch where he isn’t going to be hurting teams. In the second tier of 3 (in a 4231) he’s too often stuck behind the ball getting stuck into midfield battles that really shouldn’t be his affair.

During this weekend’s derby it was clear that Kenny had viewed the evidence of the Wolves game as being a marker towards the profitability in pairing Suarez and Carroll in the more traditional little ’n’ large juxtaposition once again. It clearly is an experiment worth repeating, but whether it’s utilised in a 442 (or the 433 variant) or with Carroll effectively making up one of 3 behind Suarez as the ‘1’ (in a 4231) will depend on the demands of the varying tests that lie ahead.

The ‘Heatmaps’ on those Guardian chalkboards are showing, post Everton, that Kenny has perhaps altered the close season question of choice from ‘who will Liverpool use to supply Andy Carroll?’, to ‘how will Andy carroll and others best service Luis Suarez?’.

The emerging truth is that it is possible that we’ve all been looking in the wrong direction, and that Dalglish may just have pulled off something of a blissfully simple tactical masterstroke that could serve to not only take the pressure off Carroll but also to correctly harness the squad’s most potent attacking instrument, Suarez. Either way, the evidence from the Wolves game and again at Goodison hints that with the Luis-Carroll combo, Liverpool could well be through the looking glass and heading towards Champions League qualifying wonderland.

To be, or not to be…give it time is the answer

By Jan Gorski-Mescir

Website: http://fydsy.wordpress.com/ 
Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/Fydsy 

I’ve restrained from the general flood of early season football musings as many others were fighting for reading space and also because I wanted to see something definitive to write about first, and lo, I have seen the very mixed bag of fortunes that have befallen Liverpool FC so far and so as a first blog of the season, here are a few early observations…

First, the obvious – still no Gerrard, a short glimpse of Glen Johnson and a slightly longer view of Daniel Agger, who on the whole, had been on good form and looking like his old self until his injury jinx caught up with him again – hopefully, this will be a short-term absence this time around and nothing at all yet of the very promising Martin Kelly. That said, it’s the absence of the true creative input of Steven Gerrard we’re missing, especially in view of the departed Raul Meireles – more of which later.

So – the new boys, starting with the two additions of last season’s halfway mark. Luis Suarez, to general acclaim, is very likely to go on to be a genuine Kop legend – his start has been exceptional in any sense – he brings fire, creativity and guile in the final third and an eye for goal – sadly, he’s had to make most of his own chances so far this season, has been doubled and even trebled up on and generally kicked off the park, generating a flash (righteously, given the appalling refereeing) of that infamously seen Ajax temper in the God awful game against Spurs last Sunday. Unquestionably though, the lad has got ‘it’.

Andy Carroll, the far more expensive of the two in January, is struggling – with his fitness, his form and in my opinion the understanding that at Liverpool, you need to do what you did for your previous club – but a lot better. I desperately want Carroll to succeed, but wonder if he has the legendary ‘game intelligence’, knowing where and when to be, having the vision and touch to lay-off (my partner in crime insists he has ‘the first touch of a rapist’), shoot, run, feint at that optimum point when it really hurts the opposition…I suspect he does not, however, and although he’s ran himself ragged in the playing time he’s had thus far, it’s largely been to little purpose and often in the wrong place at the wrong time. Compare his off the ball nouse and use of open-space or diversionary running to that of Dirk Kuyt, and you’ll know what I mean. Too often Stewart Downing, Jose Enrique, Henderson or others have played a dangerous ball into the box, only for Carroll to be precisely where the ball isn’t and looking confused and nonplussed. Carroll may yet come good, but he is taking his time thanks in part to his earlier injury problems – that excuse is now running low..

Someone who can’t claim the same is Charlie Adam. I’ll come clean – I never understood why we wanted him – I don’t see what he brings to the party that we hadn’t already got and frankly got better of. Steven Gerrard is no spring chicken, but is not dead yet – Adam would be a poor substitute long or short-term. Raul Meireles was a far smarter and quicker player who read the game better and was good at putting the ball in the net when the chance arose, and not so often from the spot as with Adam (we’re not short of fine penalty takers – Kuyt would be my first choice).Adam has had a few fine moments to give him his due, but he is no midfield creative force or general, being too slow, overly deliberate, losing the ball too often, he can’t tackle sufficiently well, doesn’t see chances open up quickly enough and his best long passes so far have almost all been backward to Pepe Reina. More than Carroll, Adam causes me concern in that I think he’s currently more or less as good as he gets – and it’s not good enough. When pundits compare him favourably to Xabi Alonso – derisive laughter just doesn’t cut it – are they blind? His sending off against Spurs was the nadir of a so far lacklustre time at Anfield for the Scot.

Jordan Henderson is still a kid, and so has time on his side – he has some nice touches, some good vision and some pace when required – however, he needs to step it up quickly. Often he has been invisible for long periods, his passing wayward or worse – obvious. I do see as yet unfulfilled promise in Henderson, and I think although he looks out of his depth somewhat now (Jay Spearing‘s bit parts have highlighted the advantage of being trained in the Liverpool style, the big club ethos by comparison) I do feel he should be good for us as the season goes on.

José Enrique has in most people’s opinion (including mine) been little short of outstanding – he has settled in beautifully and showed how a marriage of skill, effort and intelligence is the way forward for a club of our standing and intentions/pretensions. he has shown a dynamic approach in both his attacking and defensive play, occasionally linking wonderfully with Suarez, Henderson, Downing and Kuyt in turns – the fact he and Pepe can speak the same language can’t be a hindrance either. He was one of the steals of the summer.

Stewart Downing has thus far acquitted himself with some aplomb – he’s worked hard, made some excellent runs, passes, crosses and should have had a goal or two for his efforts – his tackling back has been reminiscent of the old ‘defending from the front’ Anfield philosophy of yore. I admit I was unsure of him coming – yet he has shown he has what it takes to be at a big club and his attitude has been so very positive. The only downside to Downing so far is that like Henderson, he can go missing – not as often or for as long, but still more than a player with his potential impact should but that could be simply early teething problems though, and his general performance makes it a far lesser concern than with his co-signee Henderson.

Alexander Doni of course, is not going too get to many chances to threaten Pepe Reina’s goal-line hegemony, but should the need arise, the sometime Brazilian international is a solid keeper and more than capable in a none Pegguy Arphexad stylee – I’m quite than happy with him as a back up.

This takes us to the last of the major new boys, Sebastián Coates. This kid (for he still is one in my white-templed view) is a real player and may yet be THE bargain of the summer with hindsight a season or two from now. His awful baptism of shite at Spurs shows he won’t hide, he’ll always play his football and be an intimidating presence in our back four in future years once he’s settled – this is undoubtedly in my mind, the man who will eventually bench Jamie Carragher‘s career.

We should also of course, acknowledge the return of the prodigal Welsh son, Craig Bellamy – genuinely a Liverpool fan, and one who will play himself out utterly for the club – whether that will be good enough, we can’t say – but for me, he remains a likely very effective addition to the squad if needed.

The last critique has to go with the man himself, ‘King’ Kenny Dalglish. The season thus far has been a mixed bag – some fine performances (Arsenal, Bolton) a good performance for no result (Stoke) a half a performance (Sunderland) and a fairly terrible one (Spurs). Now – we could say with some reason, that the international break came at precisely the wrong time for us, but then, so could almost everyone else, and no-one came back crocked so it won’t really wash.  The cohesion we appeared to have in the first to games has been partially and sometimes wholly absent in the last two – in short, not nearly good enough, break or no break – though its early days, and we really are bedding in half a new team and with a key player or two missing. Nonetheless, Kenny’s tactics and positional choices against Spurs, despite the poor refereeing and the denouement of being down to 9 men were – I hesitate to say it, but I must – poor. The King has to take that on the chin. I like Martin Škrtel, an honest, hard-working CB who gives it a good go every time and had been rather good already in earlier games, especially in showing a remarkable knack for getting forward that had hitherto been almost absent in his game. However, he’s no right back and putting him up against the admittedly wildly over-rated but still at times very good and very quick Gareth Bale was and let’s be fair, an epic fail – a disaster waiting to happen, and happen it did. I doubt we’ll see that kind of error again. Kenny Dalglish is symbolic of everything that sums up why Liverpool fans are Liverpool fans, quick learner he is but infallible he isn’t. Like many, I would have worked a bit to keep Meireles – now, I know we don’t always know the real circumstances behind a player leaving, but for me, with what he offered he was far too good to let go at this stage, and it’s frankly all a bit baffling amongst the positive movement of sub-standard players out of the club that one of his quality should slip through our fingers to a major rival for the second time in half a season.

So finally, at times very good, but not yet great, not yet consistent and a few question marks hanging over some key new players – oddly all British, which in the press’ clamour to extol the virtues of paying daft money for English players is rendered bizarre when you consider that apart from Stewart Downing, it’s our new legion of ‘Foreign Johnnies’ who have settled quicker, better and frankly been by far the better players and more professional – could it be they even understand the nature of the club and fans better? Do they all have considerably better and more refined quantities of skill, ability, vision, fitness and that enigmatic ‘game intelligence’? One thing is certain – it makes any policy of ‘buying British’ and paying over the odds to do so a questionable aim – and thankfully one Damien Comolli says with ‘it’s the player that matters, not the passport’ we are not adhering to, despite the media’s fondest hopes and propaganda.

I have hope – I remember how awful it was last year under the execrable Roy Hodgson (an English media darling) during the dying throes of Gillett and Hicks and this year under Kenny Dalglish (who never gets the same slack as Hodgson or that bacon-faced prat up the East Lancs Road) and the thus far excellent FSG are a world apart in the emotional, quality and vision stakes. I don’t want to keep looking back though, the past is prologue – I want to look forward and we can and must do better. The return of a fit Steven Gerrard will ease that process, and Charlie Adam in particular must watch and learn, and do it quickly.

In between indulging himself having swimming pools filled with nubile girls for his pleasure, Mao once said that ‘even the longest journey begins with a single step’. We have taken that step and more – but the road will have some unpleasant bumps in it, don’t forget that.

Wasting Chances – Liverpool 2011/12

By Andrew Beasley

Website: http://basstunedtored.com/
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/basstunedtored

Whilst it is still early days this season, here is a look at how Liverpool’s shooting accuracy this year compares to the last three seasons:

Obviously it’s not an entirely fair comparison to other seasons, as the away games so far have all been at the more difficult end of the spectrum for example, but it gives us an idea of how the team is doing. The fact that the team is almost 8% less accurate than last season must surely be a slight cause for concern though, even allowing for the small sample size.

It’s surprising to see that Liverpool’s most successful season of the period in terms of overall performance, when they had Fernando Torres (the best striker in the world at the time), featured their lowest accuracy for shooting. That said, they did have over 100 more shots than in the other two full seasons, so it stands to reason that they would miss a lot too; as the figures show, the team always puts more shots off target than they do on goal.

How about chance conversion? It’s easier to notice a chance is missed when watching a game, rather than thinking specifically about shots being on or off target. Unfortunately the data for 2008/09 isn’t available, but I still have the last two seasons to compare the current form with.

The team is performing below the rate for the previous two seasons, which were virtually identical to each other, by about 3%. As this years tally is only 78% of last years figure, then clearly Liverpool have been wasting chances in the early stages of 2011/12.

If they’d have carried on with the same conversion rate as last season, then based on the chances created they would have scored two more goals.

Impossible to say when they’d have been scored, but they might have earned an extra two points against Sunderland, or earned a point from the Stoke match; likewise, they could have been against Bolton, Wolves or Arsenal, which would have made no difference to the points tally, even if the games themselves might have been more comfortably won. All ifs, buts and maybes though of course.

How are Liverpool comparing on these metrics to their Premier League rivals this season? Firstly, shooting accuracy:

Liverpool come in twelfth, and no team below them has outscored them so far. Scary to note that Manchester United have had more shots on target than some teams have had shots in total, though of course Arsenal’s capitulation at Old Trafford helped them greatly there. Credit to Bolton; they have scored as many as the Reds, despite having 25 fewer shots.

The Reds are ranked tenth at present on the chance conversion measurement, so clearly there’s some room for improvement here too. It’s interesting to note that this doesn’t correlate that clearly with the shooting accuracy statistics; the likes of Aston Villa and Blackburn are a lot higher on the chance conversion list than they are on the shooting one. Of course, with small samples like these, any fortunate or flukey goals would skew the figures a fair bit, so it will be worth checking the figures again at the end of the season.

Although Liverpool have started the season reasonably well (1.67 points-per-game at the time of writing), they’ve definitely not been converting as many chances as they could have based on previous years. They’ll need to improve their points-per-game average to finish in the top four, so sharpening up their shooting boots is an absolute must.

Statistics sourced from EPLIndex. Please take a look at my other articles, a list of which can be found here.

Update: After posting this, fellow stat-head Red Dan Kennett advised me that Liverpool have so far this season converted only three of their twelve clear-cut chances (25%), whereas last season the team converted 44% (34 out of the 77 they had). Whichever way you look at it, Liverpool are not making the most of their opportunities, and with Everton and Manchester United to come next, there’s no better time to resolve this issue.

n.b. The stats for this article are up to and including the WWFC game.

It Can Never Be Too Late For Justice

By Tony Barrett

http://thekop.liverpoolfc.tv/service/displayKickPlace.kickAction?u=30328340&as=173471&b=

AS the weeks since the Hillsborough disaster have become months and the months have turned into years so the number of people saying the time has come for English football’s worst ever tragedy to be consigned to the past has risen.

An inquest held at Bolton Coroners Court last week exposed the folly of such arguments. The death of Stephen Whittle, who took his own life due to what can only be described as survivor’s guilt, was a tragedy in its own right. That his personal suffering had its roots in what occurred at Hillsborough on April 15 1989 makes the unnecessary loss of yet another life poignant in the extreme.

The “it’s time to move on” brigade may not agree but the pain, suffering and injustice that stem from Hillsborough are as relevant today as they were twenty two years ago. There are countless hidden victims of the disaster who struggle on a daily basis with the terrible events they witnessed, the mental and physical scars from that terrible day or the acute sense of bereavement that comes with the loss of a loved one.

Mr Whittle was one of them. At 50 years of age he should have been enjoying the prime of his life, but he was unable to. His family were aware that he was suffering from a combination of depression and anxiety but he did not confide in them that the cause of his psychological suffering was a profound personal guilt relating to a decision to pass on a ticket for the ill-fated FA Cup semi-final between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest to a friend. Like 95 others , Mr Whittle’s friend perished in the death trap that was the Leppings Lane end.

“That awful tragic event that happened so long ago is still reaching out and touching people,” Jennifer Leeming, the coroner, quite rightly said when reaching a narrative verdict on Mr Whittle’s death.  “Especially for a man who was so keen on football, it was a big part of his life and to have that awful event associated with such a pleasure must have been troubling as the years went on.”

It is for people like Mr Whittle and everyone else who has been affected by Hillsborough that the fight for justice must continue. There will be no shortage of people ready to dismiss the battle as a futile one, as an abstract search for something that cannot be delivered, as an irrelevance. If there is one thing in this whole saga that has gone on for far too long it is the criticism of the justice fight from naysayers who have nothing to offer besides negativity.

Why should Hillsborough be accepted? Why should the cover up that followed it go unchallenged? Why should one of the greatest injustices this country has ever hosted continue without being contested? There are no reasons why the fight for justice should come to an end before it is delivered. None whatsoever.

At Anfield a week last Saturday the refusal of the Liverpool supporters to accept injustice was once again evident. It was writ large in the banners, including those that showed the boycott of The Sun newspaper is as strong as ever, and it could be heard in the chant that brought an entire stadium to its feet in solidarity with the 96 and their families.

The story of Mr Whittle’s death was not publicized widely enough for it to have been known by all who were present at Anfield for the visit of Sunderland but even without knowing his tragic tale everyone who stood up or chanted for justice were doing so in his name and all of the other victims of Hillsborough. Until justice is finally delivered than the campaign must continue, no matter how many years pass.

Embrace Your Inner Nerd

By Roy Henderson

Websites:

http://www.level3football.com/  http://www.theanfieldwrap.com/author/royhenderson/ 

STATISTICS. They’re a recent phenomenon in the game of football, and I’ll be honest, they drive me up the wall.

I mean, remember the fuss two years ago? FIFA risking the wrath of national footballing establishments across the globe by introducing the new-fangled concept of “league tables”, with all kinds of new-fangled ideas like “goals for”, “goals against”, and (pushing the boat a bit far this time) “goal difference”? It swelled the lager-lined brain of football fans around the entire footballing world, ah tells thee.

Charlie Nicholas was seen buying a pillow for his head.

Paul Merson openly wept on live national television.

I’m being facetious of course. But the point stands. Statistics have been part and parcel of our game since the day the medieval yokels decided to blow up a pig’s bladder and indulge in a little head tennis. “Hoy! You’ve got one more player than we have!”. Statistics.

Statistics only drive me up the wall in as much as I don’t have more time to devote to their study and analysis. You see, for me at least, football is a game like any other game, and an observable phenomenon like any other observable phenomenon in life. It’s ideally suited to statistical analysis.

This article, of course, was prompted by our very own Phil Blundell’s recent article on The Anfield Wrap, entitled “Lies, Damned Lies and Raul Meireles”. And reading between the lines, there are hints that we’re not that far from being on the same page. It’s just that Phil wears his shirt over his strides, whereas I tuck mine into my greying underpants.

Statistics, of course, is the mathematical discipline that sees you carefully insert a cardboard pen holster into the breast pocket of your shirt (praying for an ink leakage), don a pair of standard issue Nerd’s Milkbottle Glasses, and set about collecting, organising, sorting, filtering, slicing, dicing, analysing, interpreting, and last but not least, presenting data to a scared and bewildered world.

Depending on how good you are at this stuff, the world either stands up and applauds until it loses the feeling in its hands, or looks blankly at you for an extended period like that dog having its cake-triggered Vietnam flashback. In both cases, if you’re paying attention, chances are you’ll witness the flicker of disdain behind their eyes. What is the point of people like you, they’re thinking – even if they’re not conscious of it, and would never really admit it. Part of them is thinking “Get a life”.

Stats Aren’t Rocket Science

If you’re reading this page, and you’re able to understand the words you’re reading, chances are your teachers also taught you how to count, how to add, and maybe even how to do percentages and long division.

For some of you, sadly, your Maths teacher would have been the kind of person who triggers instant drooling somnambulistic trance the moment you enter their classroom. If that was the case, chances are the mere mention of stats makes you want to reach for your gat.

For some of you though, your Maths teacher was the opposite – someone who made numbers sing a little, or who showed you how these daft little tasks had some relevance in every day life. How they helped people build bridges, or cure fatal diseases, or put a man on the moon. If you had one of those teachers, maybe you’ve ended up as one of these people who finds stats a wee bit interesting. I mean, get your head round this and you might end up strapping yourself into a Saturn V.

Yeah, I know I said stats weren’t rocket science, but fuck me if the men in silly suits didn’t roam around collecting rock samples. What was the point in that? You guessed it – statistics. Stats are sexy. In fact, just watch Hans Rosling’s presentation plotting “bedroom” v “bathroom and kitchen”, and you’ll see what I mean. In the right hands, stats give you a saucy Dudley Moore in “10″ style view into the boudoirs of every couple in the world. All you need is a little imagination sprinkled on top of your ability to count.

Stats Give You An Edge
It sometimes pays to keep track of the one key stat that nobody else is keeping track of. Just ask Dirty Harry.

“I know what you’re thinking. “Did he fire six shots or only five?” Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself.”

Do you feel lucky? Well, luck shouldn’t really come into it. At Liverpool Football Club, Darren Burgess and his team spend a great deal of their time distilling the luck out of their methods, and trying to pinpoint the key statistical tools, methods and indicators that will give the club an edge over its competitors.

These people are, we’re led to believe, taking the use of stats to ‘weapons grade’ levels in the context of our medical and fitness coaching team’s work. Sure, they’re all boffins and you could paper the walls of Melwood twice over with their University degree certificates, but are they resting on their laurels? No. The’re pushing their understanding of players’ fitness and vital signs. They want to understand them so well that instead of having to rely on the manager’s eyes and experience to figure out when a player is flagging, they’ll point at the right spot on the right graph and say “in five minutes, Bellamy’s gonna run out of gas”. Fresh player off, fresh player on, no decline in performance.

Stats give you an edge. The hard part is figuring out what the right stats are.

Great Men Can Make Complexity Appear Simple
Bill Shankly, of course, put it better than anyone.

“Football is a simple game, complicated by idiots.”

Now there are two ways to read Bill’s statement.

Interpretation #1:
Any old idiot can understand football – no need for adding complicated theories or statistics or shite like that.

Interpretation #2:
Given that I, Bill Shankly, am a genius, I can make the game appear simple. I can take the complexity of it all and distill it down into simple ideas that anyone who works with me can understand. And no matter what secrets I uncover in my own research, I’ll always pass the information on to my staff and players in a way that your average man in the street can understand.

I prefer the second one.

For me, it’s the defining feature of a great man – a great person. To make complexity appear simple. Being a confirmed geek, last Thursday night I went to see a lecture by another person who I’d tag as a ‘great’ – Hans Rosling.

In making fun of his research assistants who were always off looking to prove complex theories using mind-bending techniques, he said “I’m smarter than that. I look for the obvious numbers that everyone else is ignoring.” So, for example, Hans Rosling can pick up some numbers off the front page of the United Nations website and instantly bust the myth that we’re facing a ‘population explosion’ – the kind of myth that shapes the thinking of politicians and journalists and pundits around the globe.

It doesn’t always have to be complex. Quite often the most powerful numbers are the ones that are pure common sense.

In this regard, Phil’s not a million miles from us geeks. :

“There are some valid statistics, but they’re the ones that aren’t really seen or contemplated; they’re the statistics that go in to more depth and explore context…

Statistics are just like mini-skirts; they give you good ideas but hide the most important thing… Next time you try and prove a point using a statistic, have a think about what you’re trying to prove and what the statistic tells you.”

And it’s here that you realise Phil’s thinking on much the same lines I am. The lazy use of statistics without reference to context or any kind of understanding or experience of the game is, it has to be said, a blight on modern day footballing debate. It’s maybe a case of us needing to be careful what we wish for. It wasn’t so long ago we found ourselves slagging off journalists and pundits for their over-simplified view of the game. They’d lazily denounce zonal marking without any real insight into what they were talking about. They’d disregard tactical influences and an over-analytical approach to the game as somehow contrary to the ‘up and at ‘em’ heartbeat of the English game.

Oh how we wished for more intelligent comment, and for genuine insight and analysis. Our mini skirts came in the form of Revista De La Liga, and of thoughtful tomes like Wilson’s “Inverting The Pyramid”, and pretty soon we saw the blogosphere overflow with tactical and seemingly new-fangled statistical comment.

So, as is inevitable in life, you get good stats and shit stats. And you get good commentary and shit commentary. And at times you’d find yourself blue in the face talking football with people who just straight up don’t understand the shit they’re spouting – shit they believe is backed up with cold hard statistical facts. It’s a fair point Phil makes. But he takes it too far for me.

Embrace Your Inner Nerd
Sure, stats misused are like farts in the fog. But the idea that football is intrinsically too fluid and dynamic to yield to statistical analysis is, frankly, daft.

How do you think the Met Office manages to tell us whether it’s gonna rain tomorrow? If boffins can model and predict trends in the global climate with unerring accuracy, then don’t tell me there aren’t brains out there that can do the same with football. There are working computer models out there that can tell you how the shifting currents in the oceans will affect our global climate over the next decade. Are you telling me football’s any more complicated than that?

Some stats are shit, while other stats are useful. The more stats we figure out that are useful, the richer our model of the game becomes, and the more able we are to analyse it properly, and to understand the impact that decisions and changes will make to our fortunes on the park.

Why else would Joe Fagan keep a comprehensive log of training drills, weather and playing surface conditions, and performance levels in his diary every day? I’ll tell you why – to do his own brand of ground-breaking statistical analysis.

There’s a near-universal myth, flowing from the Shanks quote above, that Liverpool FC laughed at modern scientific and tactical fads and simply sent the boys out to play five a sides every day. From telling Tommy Lawrence and the back four to push up the park, to playing midfield players in central defence, to bedding in pass and move football itself, every innovation was based on analysis and thought. Shankly took the FA coaching manual and threw it in the bin; but don’t misunderstand his reasons for that. He wasn’t some unthinking iconoclast doing these things for dramatic effect – he only dismissed it because in his view, the FA’s coaching orthodoxy didn’t work.

Stats themselves, of course, are also portrayed in an over-complicated and over-intellectual way. The fundamental method behind Shankly’s approach to the game was based on his playing days. I can’t remember where I saw the quote, but during his playing days Shanks was asked who would play in his ideal midfield. He proceeded to name himself alongside the Magical Magyars who’d torn England a new one at Wembley a few weeks beforehand. Why? “They’d never be able to get the ball off us”, he said.

Isn’t that based on stats? Keep the overwhelming majority of possession, and there’s much less chance of the opposing side hurting you. Possession stats. Do it in the areas of the park they don’t want you to do them in, and you’ll stand a big chance of hurting them. Territorial stats. Stats.

The more clever people we employ to look for them, the more ‘useful’ stats we’ll find. Do that for long enough, and we’ll gain a powerful edge that others will find difficult to match. There’s nothing in this world that doesn’t yield to statistical analysis. Arguing otherwise is like arguing that Derren Brown is a real-life wizard with magical waves emanating from his magic wand.

So stop whingeing about stats and embrace your inner nerd (and go on, buy him a lego Millenium Falcon for his Christmas). It’ll pay dividends in the long run.

P.S.
This article was rattled out with all due respect to Phil whose article I thoroughly enjoyed, and who (hopefully) I’ll buy a nice frothy pint when we eventually get to meet in person.

P.P.S.
A quick plug for the lads n lasses involved in www.transferpriceindex.com whose geeky number crunching play might just transform the way we think about ‘value’ in the game. You can find my review of their book, “Pay As You Play”, here.

Follow Roy on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/royhendo 

It May Be Hard To Believe - But There Is Still More To Come From Luis Suarez

By Tony Barrett

Tony's Blog: http://thekop.liverpoolfc.tv/service/searchEverything.kickAction?as=173471&u=30328340&mediaType=blog&sortType=recent&tab=yes&includeBlog=on&member=blog

Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/TonyBarretTimes

SO profound has Luis Suarez’s impact on English football been that it seems like an unnecessary and unwarranted exercise in nit picking when anyone dares to suggest that there is still improvement needed for the supremely talented Uruguayan to achieve his full potential.

This human tornado of a footballer spins defenders round and round before disdainfully spitting them out, as the likes of Gary Cahill, Brede Hangeland and Wes Brown can testify. Suarez is a menace in the truest sense of the word, operating ostensibly as a conventional forward but taking his reign of terror to wherever he feels he can inflict most damage.

In terms of technique and imagination, Suarez has sufficient quality to play in the current all conquering Barcelona team. He really is that good. And yet – and this is where the almost churlish criticism comes in – he could be even better. If there is one area of his game that the former Ajax man could do with improving, it is his finishing.

A running total of 21 goals for Uruguay in 49 appearances and a quite staggering 81 for Ajax in the 110 games he played for the Dutch club suggests otherwise, but such is his superlative level of ability that there is a feeling that Suarez could be even more prolific, an improvement that will hopefully come with time.

Again, this may seem harsh, but in three of Liverpool’s four leagues games so far this season, Suarez has failed to take the kind of chances that a player of his standing would normally expect to accept with ease.

A penalty against Sunderland, two presentable opportunities in the comfortable win over Bolton Wanderers and a last gasp half volley in the defeat to Stoke City last weekend – all have been missed. That Suarez was beguilingly brilliant in all of these fixtures goes without saying, but he could have adorned his stellar showings with goals that would have added up to three points to Liverpool’s current total.

That is why when comparisons are made with the departed Fernando Torres during his spell at Liverpool, the Spaniard continued to be regarded as the more natural finisher even if his replacement possesses a far superior all round game. Whereas Torres could – and often did – verge on being anonymous in many games only to come up with a goal, Suarez can be the star of the show without hitting the back of the net.

There were two areas of the pitch in which Torres revelled – in the penalty area, obviously, and cutting in from the left flank. Suarez, by contrast, pops up here, there and everywhere, covering every single blade of grass in a constant effort to wreak mayhem. With the combination of time and the expert tutelage of Kenny Dalglish, Suarez will come to operate predominantly in the areas where he can cause maximum damage, particularly if the performances of his team mates mean he does not need to drop deep in search of the ball.

Working with Marco Van Basten at Ajax allowed Suarez to improve his game sufficiently for Liverpool to come calling. “He taught me a lot about how to play as a forward,” he says. “About shooting techniques and about things that worked for him – his movement and his technique.” The desire to learn is evident, as is his determination to improve. It is that combination –coupled with the expertise of Dalglish – that will see Suarez take his game to another level. Should he become an even more deadly finisher then he could even stand unopposed as the finest forward in world football. He is already one of the best, but he could be even better.

Stewart Downing: The First Six Games

Stewart Downing came to Liverpool with many fans feeling that we had settled for second best after United had signed Ashley Young. Some even intimated that, in replacing Downing with N’Zogbia, Villa had improved their first team for a fraction of the price. Dalglish has always insisted that Downing was his first choice, and a look at his first six games for Liverpool helps to show why this was the case.

Downing made his debut against Sunderland on the opening game of the season. He played the first half on the left. A look at his heat map from the first half shows that he was regularly getting down the wing to the touchline, where he is at his most dangerous:

He played many penetrating balls into the danger area in the first half and linked up well with Enrique down the left hand side.

A turning point for his performance was when he switched to the right for one move in the first half, cutting inside in the 33^rd minute and sending a thundering drive onto the crossbar. Had this move led to the debut goal his effort deserved, Liverpool would have gone in at half time 2-0 up, well on the way to a comfortable win.

This one successful move led to an experiment, with Downing playing on the right for the rest of the game. From this side of the pitch, he was much less effective, getting less of the ball and failing to make as many penetrating runs to the touchline. His second half heat map shows this clearly:

Against Arsenal, this experiment of switching Downing to the right continued. It was an extremely positive performance by him, with 55% of his possession taking place in Arsenal’s final third. His heat map shows that he spent almost as much time on the right hand side as he did on the left.





Henderson was again much more effective down the left hand side, and his partnership with fellow new boy Jose Enrique continued to flourish. Arsenal’s young full back, Jenkinson, was left chasing shadows as the two passed the ball around him down the left flank:

The partnership between Downing and Enrique has been one of the highlights of the season so far. Both players are naturally left footed, very attack minded and they both possess the ability to pass and move quickly and accurately. Much of our good work so far this season has come from their link up play.

The importance of playing Downing on the left hand side is evident when looking at the heat map for the away defeat against Stoke. For the first time, he actually played more of the match on the right than he did on the left:

His partnership with Martin Skrtel did not bear fruit. Skrtel does not have Enrique’s ability to drive into the final third on the overlap, and Downing does not have the ability with his right foot to get penetrating crosses into the box. This led to a situation where the interplay between Skrtel and Downing was completely ineffective. It personified the performance: Liverpool dominated possession but could not find a way through the Stoke defence.

The Tottenham game again exposed Downing’s ineffectiveness on the right, although he is in no way to blame for the 4-0 defeat.

Based on the heat map in his sixth game against Wolves, the experiment of “Downing on the Right” is over:



For the first time this season, Downing did not get a touch of the ball on the right hand side of the pitch. He spent an astonishing 60% of his time in the left hand corner of Wolves’ half, where he is at his most dangerous. At times, he and Enrique were playing keep ball down the left so effectively that even their Liverpool team mates must have felt left out. The following chalkboard shows just how well this partnership is developing:



Looking at the above chalkboard in more detail, it is also clear that Suarez and Carroll were benefiting from Downing’s dominance down the left, with each of them collecting the ball from him on the edge of the six yard box twice. Given the finishing ability of both strikers, if Downing is able to provide an average of four balls into this area each game we are in for some very high score lines.

Overall, Downing’s start to the season has been very consistent. The highlight has been the partnership with Enrique whilst the low light has been the largely unsuccessful experiment down the right. He has been a great asset to the team and is an early contender to be runner-up to Suarez for player of the season.

For more articles by Joe Kilty visit http://www.joescouse.blogspot.com/

Follow Joe on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/Joescouse_lfc